onsdag 24 februari 2016

Cold fusion circus comes to town

This summer new spectacular promises are promised to be promised; Mats Lewan organizes a symposium under the title New Energy World Symposium, to be held in Stockolm on June 21, 2016. Just read the title of this symposium. Doesn't it sound fantastic?

Yes indeed, that is exactly what it is. Maybe something for trekkies? No, I guess this is unfair. To Star Trek fans. I take that back.

Anyway, here are some goodies from the announcements:
“it has been scientifically proven that elite scientists really can hold back scientific progress”. 
“One of the most promising is an ongoing one-year test of a heat plant producing one megawatt of thermal power—the average consumption of about 300 Western households, including electricity, space heating, water heating and air conditioning—from mere grams of harmless fuel.” (my emphasise)
You see? 

General statements and promises of hugh gains are made. Earlier critique is simply washed away as if it didn't exist. Such critique has been given in several posts on this blog, see, e.g., "How often does one have to kill the cat". It has actually been shown that fraud cannot be excluded or is even likely.

The critique is very severe (slight understatement). But believers rush elsewhere (maybe a case of displacement activity?) and make new bold promises in an attempt to blind the public, and, of course, potential investors: “One of the most promising is an ongoing one-year test of a heat plant producing one megawatt of thermal power—the average consumption of about 300 Western households, including electricity, space heating, water heating and air conditioning—from mere grams of harmless fuel."

Of course: this is just a statement, yet another claim not a proof. The proof will come from another test. Maybe. Eventually. Sometime in the future. With yet another E-Cat version. The typical moving target. As in most pseudoscientific adventures.

But Lewan, as an insider, claims that these new tests should give “good reasons to believe that the technology is valid”. I heard that before: we are just one tiny step away. Be patient ...

Regarding that new test I wonder: Is it public how the test is being made? What protocol? How to ensure that the serious problems from earlier tests are avoided (see, e.g., http://arxiv.org/abs/1306.6364)? Where is it made? Who is involved? Why is it secret? Where will the results be published? Who will scrutinize the validity of the results and claims?

Meanwhile, Lewan just knows that it will be a game changer, will be have "disruptive consequences" that "may literally change the world, promising Planet Earth clean water, zero-emission vehicles with unlimited mileage, a solution to the climate crisis and much more."

For pseudoscientific claims it is rather popular to cite well known scientists as general excuses. In this case Lewan uses a quote from Max Planck as support for the bold LENR claims: “A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.”

Looking at the list of speakers, it seems more likely that LENR-believers eventually will die out.

12 kommentarer:

  1. Dear mr. Pomp,

    Just a few comments from a "sideline" observer of this story.

    1. The 1MW "test" referred to below is, according to Rossi, a 1 MW plant installed at customer site to prove the energy production, economics, functionality and regularity.

    This means his technology has gone through a qualification programme and with this last operational test, it may have passed technology readiness level 8, If the results are positive.

    That is, If using DOD definition:
    TRL8:"Technology has been proven to work in its final form and under expected conditions. In almost all cases, this TRL represents the end of true system development."
    Ref. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_readiness_level

    And "everyone" is now waiting for the final verdict from the third party reviewer, that has performed continous measurements of the 1MW plant deliveries during the last year.

    2. Therefore the Lewan symposium is justified depending on a positive outcome of above qualifation programme.

    And If the outcome of the 1MW is positive, then also F&P was right, and then yes, it would prove scientists Have held back the progress of this discovery by their unjustified critisism of the original F&P discovery.

    3. It's not accurate to say critisism have been "washed away". The critisism have been widely discussed in various internet forums, and still is.

    4. "The proof will come from another test. Maybe. Eventually. Sometime in the future" & "Regarding that new test I wonder: Is it public how the test is being made? What protocol?"

    According to Rossi there will be no more public tests. If 3rd party review report being finalised is positive (which should be released in March), the 1MW plant is qualified as a commercial product.

    And Should the outcome of the report be negative, Lewans symposium will probably be cancelled ;-)

    5. Someone asked Rossi on his blog if they could invest in his Company.

    Rossi answerred 'no': "I can accept financing from professional investors, well aware of all the risks connected with us, but I cannot accept money from persons for whom a loss of their investments could change in worse their life."

    It's less likely professional investors is tricked by scammers.

    And soon we should know If the 3rd party review is positive or negative ;-)

  2. Thanks for your input. I am certainly eager to see any real, open, reproducible proof of this device that is not "on a customer site" but public.

    You mention that Rossi said that there will be "no more public tests". As far as I know there never where any public tests. It has always been a secret and always will be.

    When I say "washed away" then I refer to a) the text in the announcement of the symposium and the bold statements misusing a quote of Max Planck, and b) the fact that the problems addressed in this blog and elsewhere (the problem of the isotopic change, the much more likely alternative explanation of Rutquist, http://lenr.fysik.org/ecat/LENR_analysis.pdf etc) are simply ignored as if it were views of some stubborn old-fashioned "high priests" (quoting Lewan). This and the fact that things are kept secret while always (how many years now?) making big promises just around the corner (Rossi moved on to yet another version of "the" E-Cat, right?) is not very honest in my opinion.

    Anyway, I wait for the invitation to give a talk at this symposium. My suggested title is "Science, Nuclear Physics, and the E-Cat". I have contacted Lewan about this and he said he will consider it ...

  3. OK,

    Considdering Mr. Rossi is an entrepeneur, it's understandeable that he protects certain parts of the technology ( If it's all true that is).

    Anyhow, reproducible proof would have to come from other Replicators, like MFMP. They report a "radiation burst" detected during their latest recent test.


    And Lewans "bold statement" may or may not be premature. I would say it all depends on the final outcome of the third party review and possibly on successful MFMP replications......

    Anyhow for Rossi it's all and only business, he has no obligations to the Scientific community to prove his secrets.

    The same goes for Brillouin Energy, another american Company with a LENR based Ni-H reactor. Their claims include a positive test perfomed at SRI, probably under NDA.

    so Rossi is not alone for Ni-H CF claims.


  4. Well, I'll say no more and wait for this round of "proof". The past ones were, as you could see not impressive but indicate fraud (again: 100% to one isotope? and Rutqvist ...). Well if you can't see what is going on you will let yourself being fooled in the next round too).

    Like that the circus can continue for ever with secret test because "Mr. Rossi is an entrepeneur" (yes he is, but in what?). And I am looking forward to giving my talk at the symposium. In case I'd really get an invitation.

  5. Mats Lewan has decided to go all in for never-never land of the brave new energy revolution.

    Being brave is good when you want to achieve something wonderful. But maybe removing blindfold would be better.

  6. Mats Lewan bears a lot of responsibility for making Rossi's scam possible. He is the person who has never pressed Rossi to perform proper calibrations since his public demos began. And he has no understanding of all the ways Rossi could be cheating. Like any good sleight of hand performer, Rossi uses different methods at different times.

  7. Btw: remember, cold fusion is only the runner up in this contest: http://www.realclearscience.com/lists/top_junk_science_of_2013/ecat_cold_fusion.html

  8. I have found no information of value in this thread. None. Did I overlook something? You guys are believers! What you believe in is a mystery though... Cheers!

  9. BREAKING! The E-cat recipe is out! Check it out here: http://star.psy.ohio-state.edu/coglab/Miracle.html

  10. Maybe already known, but the event was cancelled 2016-04-15

    1. Found later that the cancellation indeed already is known, as it is notified in a later post in this blog:

  11. Indeed. Unsurprisingly the event has been cancelled. But I am sure the story will continue.